Bitcoin’s price action has been a rollercoaster recently, dropping to $77,000 before bouncing back above $85,000. This volatility has left many investors wondering: Is the current bull cycle still intact, or have we already seen the peak?
Despite the recent market corrections, historical data suggests that Bitcoin may still have room to grow. Analysts from blockchain intelligence firm IntoTheBlock believe the crypto bull run is far from over, with projections indicating potential gains of up to 150% in this cycle.
Bitcoin Halving Cycles Show Diminishing but Strong Returns
A key factor influencing Bitcoin’s price movements is the halving event, which occurs approximately every four years. During this process, the reward for mining new Bitcoin blocks is cut in half, reducing the rate at which new BTC enters circulation. This scarcity mechanism has historically led to substantial price increases.
Let’s take a look at how Bitcoin has performed after each halving:
- 2012 Halving: Bitcoin surged by 6,000% – 8,000%, later stabilizing around 1,600% – 4,000% gains.
- 2016 Halving: The bull run peaked around 2,000%, settling at 600% gains.
- 2020 Halving: Price gains were more modest, with a maximum increase of 600%.
Clearly, each cycle has brought diminishing returns as Bitcoin matures and its market capitalization grows. Despite this trend, the current cycle—which began after the most recent halving—has only reached a 60% price increase so far, leaving room for further growth.
Could Bitcoin Reach Its Peak in Late 2025?
Historically, Bitcoin has reached its price peak 12-18 months after a halving event. Given that the most recent halving took place in April 2024, this suggests that Bitcoin’s next major peak could occur between mid-2025 and late 2025.
However, external factors, such as growing institutional interest and shifting global economic policies, could influence price movements. For instance, regulatory changes and macroeconomic trends could either accelerate or slow down Bitcoin’s growth trajectory.
Final Thoughts: Is Bitcoin’s Bull Run Still Alive?
While Bitcoin’s past cycles suggest diminishing returns, analysts still anticipate a potential 50%–150% gain from the current post-halving period. If history repeats itself, Bitcoin could see new highs in the coming months.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin trades at $83,172.94, reflecting a minor pullback of 1.64% in the past week. As always, crypto investors should stay informed and manage risks effectively in this ever-evolving market.
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