For years, one company has stood at the center of Bitcoin’s rise. Not a bank, not a hedge fund
but a corporation that accumulated BTC at a historic scale. They bought billions, holding more than 3% of the entire future supply, and turned their leadership into one of the loudest global voices for institutional adoption.
This company Strategy, formerly MicroStrategy became the symbol of conviction.
Laser eyes. Relentless accumulation. A public promise to never sell.
But today, a new question is shaking the crypto world:
What happens if the market’s biggest supporter becomes the source of its next shock?
Whispers are becoming louder.
Charts are flashing warnings.
Deadlines are approaching fast.
And now, analysts are asking the unthinkable:
Could Strategy be forced to sell its Bitcoin and what would that mean for the entire market?
Let’s break this down clearly, calmly, and logically… because the decision you make today could define whether you’re positioned for opportunity or caught off guard.
The Numbers Behind the Fear
Strategy currently holds 649,870 BTC about 3.1% of the total supply that will ever exist.
To understand how enormous this is:
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It’s more than the holdings of most governments
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More than nearly every public company combined
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More than many exchanges or funds hold in their cold wallets
For years, this was crypto’s ultimate bullish foundation.
When markets dipped, Strategy bought.
When markets rose, they bought even more.
They created a self-reinforcing cycle many called:
“The Infinite Money Flywheel”
Their stock (MSTR) consistently traded at double or triple the value of each dollar of Bitcoin on their balance sheet.
That premium let them:
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Issue new stock
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Collect cash
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Buy more Bitcoin
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Increase BTC-per-share
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Push the stock up even higher
It worked brilliantly until now.
Because two massive threats are now emerging. And they could break the entire model.
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THREAT #1 — A Critical MSCI Decision in January
A quietly written line in a global index provider’s consultation could trigger automatic multi-billion-dollar selling.
MSCI one of the world’s most powerful index creators is reevaluating whether companies holding 50%+ of their assets in digital currencies should remain in major equity indices.
Strategy sits at 77% Bitcoin, making them target #1.
Key Dates That Matter
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Consultation closes: 31 December 2025
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Final decision: 15 January 2026
This is a binary event a yes-or-no that could move markets dramatically.
If MSCI excludes Strategy:
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Passive index funds must sell their MSTR shares no debate, no hesitation
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JP Morgan estimates $2.8 billion in mandatory selling
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If other index providers follow, the total could reach $8.8 billion
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This could wipe out 15–20% of Strategy’s market cap
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The shock could spill directly into Bitcoin sentiment and price action
This is not speculation. This is mechanical. Automated. Structural.
If MSCI allows Strategy to stay:
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Expect a huge relief rally
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Corporate Bitcoin treasuries become validated
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The “Bitcoin standard” narrative gains credibility
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Strategy regains market confidence
Right now, markets are pricing in fear not certainty.
THREAT #2 — The Collapse of the Premium That Fueled Strategy’s Buying
For the first time since 2020, Strategy’s stock is trading below the value of its Bitcoin.
Their MNAV (multiple of net asset value) dropped to 0.87.
This breaks the buying machine.
When MNAV < 1:
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Issuing stock dilutes shareholders
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Buying more BTC becomes unprofitable
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The flywheel stops turning
And this comes during a tough financial moment.
Cash Reserves vs. Obligations
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Cash on hand (Q3): $54.3M
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Annual dividends owed: ~$640M
Normally, Strategy would simply issue new stock.
But with MNAV negative?
They can’t.
This fuels the question:
Will Strategy be forced to sell its Bitcoin?
Let’s explore.
The Good News: Debt Doesn’t Force a Sell
Strategy’s debt structure is much stronger than the fear suggests.
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Major debt maturities begin only in 2027
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No margin calls
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Older loans would require BTC to fall to $3–4k to trigger pressure
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Even then, they could restructure
Dividend payments could theoretically be suspended (legally risky, but possible) to avoid selling any BTC.
And Strategy leadership has already publicly denied any plan to sell, saying they are accelerating purchases.
Selling voluntarily seems extremely unlikely.
So Where Is the Real Risk?
It’s not the company.
It’s the precedent.
If MSCI classifies Bitcoin-heavy companies as ineligible for major indices, this sends a message across Wall Street:
“You can hold Bitcoin… but not if you want to be treated like a normal company.”
That could:
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Slow corporate adoption
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Discourage future treasuries from holding BTC
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Unsettle existing institutional flows
But here’s the critical insight…
Bitcoin Doesn’t Depend on Strategy Anymore
Analysts from TD Cowan and VanEck crunched the data:
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Strategy’s purchases represented just 3.3% of weekly Bitcoin trading volume
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Correlation between Strategy buying and BTC price is only 0.25–0.28
It means:
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Strategy is huge
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But Bitcoin is bigger
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The market no longer relies on one corporate buyer
Additionally, Bitcoin is supported today by:
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Spot Bitcoin ETFs
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Public companies like Marathon and Semler
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Nation-states like El Salvador and Bhutan
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A global retail base
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Billion-dollar trading volume every day
Strategy was essential early on.
Today, Bitcoin stands independently.
The Verdict: Should You Be Concerned?
Short term:
Yes. Expect volatility until January 15.
MSTR holders should pay close attention to MSCI updates.
Medium term:
Strategy cannot keep buying aggressively its premium is gone.
Long term:
Bitcoin remains strong.
Its fundamentals have not changed.
Supply is limited.
Demand continues expanding.
And ironically, Strategy stepping back may actually prove Bitcoin’s resilience.
This is the moment when Bitcoin stops needing training wheels.
The Smart Mindset Moving Forward
Markets love certainty and hate hesitation.
This is the time to stay informed, think strategically, and position yourself ahead of the crowd.
Fear makes people freeze.
Clarity makes people act.
This is your moment to act with clarity.
Disclaimer: This content is informational and should not be considered financial advice. The views expressed in this article may include the author's personal opinions. Readers are encouraged to do thorough research before making any investment decisions. The Crypto Canadas is not responsible for any financial losses.
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