Last Title: «The Hidden Blueprint: How Wall Street Is Quietly Taking Control of Crypto and Why You Must Act Fast»
For more than a decade, investors trusted one idea: Bitcoin runs on a predictable 4-year cycle. But the market has changed. The data is different. And the strategy that worked in the past may no longer be the winning play for the future.
Today, a new pattern is emerging one that most people still haven’t noticed.
If you’re positioning yourself for a traditional 2025 peak…
you might already be falling behind.
Because all evidence now suggests that Bitcoin’s current cycle is extending, and the next major top is far more likely to appear between early and mid-2026. Understanding this shift is the difference between catching the next explosive run or watching it pass from the sidelines.
Let’s break down the data, the timing, and the price targets shaping the next chapter of Bitcoin’s story.
The Traditional 4-Year Cycle No Longer Fits the Data
For years, analysts debated whether Bitcoin cycles should be measured from:
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Market tops
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Market bottoms
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Halving events
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Liquidity trends
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Or macroeconomic cycles
But when we strip away the noise and focus on what consistently matters the move from bear-market low to bull-market high a fascinating pattern emerges.
Cycle 1
📅 Duration: 749 days (just over 2 years)
📈 Return: ~60,000%
Cycle 2
📅 Duration: 847 days (~2.5 years)
📈 Return: ~12,000%
Cycle 3
📅 Duration: 1,064 days (almost 3 years)
📈 Return: ~2,000%
What’s the pattern?
Every cycle grows by roughly 6 additional months, while overall returns diminish as Bitcoin matures.
This is extremely consistent and often overlooked.
Now the key question: Where are we in the current cycle?
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Cycle 4 Is Already Over 1,070 Days Old And It’s Not Done Yet
From the last bear-market low until today, the current cycle has lasted about 1,071 days—almost exactly the length of Cycle 3.
And if past patterns continue, we should expect another ~6 months of upward movement before the next true market peak.
But how long could Cycle 4 realistically extend?
There are two reliable models to answer this.
Model 1: The Linear Extension (The Conservative Scenario)
Using the durations of previous cycles (749, 847, 1,064 days), the trend suggests:
➡ Approximate Cycle 4 duration: 1,212 days
➡ Estimated top: 9 March 2026
This is the safe projection the one that assumes Bitcoin continues exactly as it has for a decade.
Under this model, Bitcoin would likely peak between:
$174,000 and $243,000
These targets are not “wild predictions.”
They simply reflect Bitcoin behaving normally at the end of a mature cycle.
Model 2: The Quadratic Expansion (The High-Momentum Scenario)
Here, cycle extensions accelerate instead of growing at a fixed rate.
➡ Estimated Cycle 4 duration: ~1,400 days
➡ Estimated top: 21 September 2026
Under this scenario:
Bitcoin’s fair value rises to ~$126,000
…while a true blow-off top could reach $199,000 to $272,000.
This model aligns perfectly with market psychology:
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The longer price moves sideways or steadily upward…
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The more confident investors become…
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The more leverage enters the market…
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The more capital comes in from the sidelines…
This slow-build tension is the fuel for parabolic finales.
Why 2025 Is Unlikely to Host the Peak
A true Bitcoin top needs months of sustained momentum.
But the current market simply hasn’t shown the signals that historically accompany a cycle ending—no overheated indicators, no mass retail FOMO, no extreme on-chain top patterns.
There just isn’t enough time left in 2025 to build the level of momentum needed for a classic euphoria phase.
2026 fits the data far more realistically.
The Price Targets That Matter Most
Using long-term logarithmic growth patterns, fair-value projections, and upper-boundary extension models, the strategic windows are clear:
Conservative 2026 target (Linear Model):
🔥 $174,000 – $243,000
Aggressive 2026 target (Quadratic Model):
⚡ $199,000 – $272,000
Both are grounded in:
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Long-term growth decay
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Historical cycle structure
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Supply absorption (ETFs)
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Market psychology
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On-chain behavior
And based on everything we know today, none of them are unreasonable.
Why This Cycle Extension Matters Right Now
An extended cycle changes everything:
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Investors grow comfortable at higher prices
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Patience thins
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Capital reallocates toward momentum
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Retail returns late, as always
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And the final explosive phase becomes even more powerful
Think back:
Bitcoin traded near $67,000 just a year ago, and it already feels like ancient history.
This is how sentiment shifts quietly at first, then suddenly all at once.
The Bottom Line: The Next Major Bitcoin Peak Is Likely in 2026
The once-trusted 4-year cycle is no longer the roadmap.
The market is evolving, and the data is pointing in a new direction:
Early to mid-2026 now stands as the most probable window for the next true cycle peak.
And the price targets are higher than most expect.
If you want to stay ahead, act before the crowd realizes the cycle has changed.
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Disclaimer: This content is informational and should not be considered financial advice. The views expressed in this article may include the author's personal opinions. Readers are encouraged to do thorough research before making any investment decisions. The Crypto Canadas is not responsible for any financial losses.
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